The western

A tropical storm warning is in effect for portions of the Florida Keys, from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, and also along the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to Englewood. This includes Key West, Marco Island, Naples, and Sanibel Island. Tropical storm conditions (winds 39+ mph) are expected to begin in these areas tonight.

Tropical storm watches have also been issued in other parts of Florida, from Craig Key eastward to Ocean Reef, including Florida Bay, and from Englewood northward along the west coast to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay. These areas could see tropical storm conditions by Tuesday.

Various tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings remain in effect for the Caribbean, including parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands. See the map below for more details.

Other parts of the Southeast, including the coastal Carolinas and southeast Virginia might see some impacts from Elsa from late Wednesday into Thursday night, but that will depend on how well organized the system is once it recurves northeastward near, inland or offshore from the coast.

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Elsa will gradually turn more to the north-northwest and then the north around the western periphery of a high-pressure system in the western Atlantic.

The storm will first track over Cuba on Monday. That interaction with Cuba should take some toll on its intensity.

Elsa’s center will then emerge over the southeast Gulf of Mexico Tuesday.

Gulf of Mexico waters will be plenty warm enough for some reorganization of Elsa after it moves north of Cuba. However, wind shear during this time may also increase, which will likely act to limit the amount of possible intensification.

Elsa’s impacts could arrive in southern Florida by later Monday and then spread northward through the state into Tuesday and Wednesday.

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